Brisbane lead this rivalry 5–1. But it’s the one loss that matters.
The Dolphins’ 40–6 win late in 2024 didn’t just break the pattern. It showed how quickly the Broncos can be exposed when they lose control through the middle. That’s the reference point now heading into Friday night.
Kick-off is set for Friday, 27 March at 7:00PM AEST at Suncorp Stadium, with live coverage on Fox League and streaming available via Kayo Sports. The match is also listed for free-to-air broadcast on Channel 9 and 9Now.
The 5–1 Record — and the One Result That Changed the Tone
On paper, this rivalry has been one-sided.
Across those five wins, Brisbane controlled the key areas — ruck speed, field position and defensive discipline. They dictated tempo, limited second-phase play and closed games out when it mattered.
That’s the standard they’ve set in this match-up.
The question now is whether they can reproduce it under different conditions — without Haas, with changes through the middle, and against a Dolphins side that has already shown it can disrupt that control.
Team Changes (Key Ins and Outs)
This time, the changes matter. Brisbane have been forced into key adjustments ahead of the derby — none bigger than the loss of Payne Haas.
His absence reshapes the Broncos’ middle rotation, with Xavier Willison stepping into the starting front row and Brendan Piakura shifting into the back row. Adam Reynolds returns and brings control back into the spine, while Ben Hunt’s role adjusts to provide added flexibility around the ruck.
For the Dolphins, the focus is on reinforcing the middle without disrupting what’s already working.
Kenny Bromwich returns to the bench to add experience to the rotation, while Mark Nicholls is promoted into the starting side. Otherwise, the squad remains largely unchanged — giving them continuity heading into a high-pressure contest.
3 Things to Watch
1. Can Brisbane Win the Middle Without Haas? This is the game inside the game. Without Payne Haas, Brisbane lose their safest source of momentum. With Bromwich back and Nicholls starting, the Dolphins have reinforced their middle — and if they generate quick play-the-balls early, it puts immediate pressure on Brisbane’s defensive system.
2. Who Dictates the Tempo — and Handles the Stakes? Adam Reynolds will try to control territory and slow the game down. The Dolphins will look to speed it up and play through the ruck. With both sides under real ladder pressure, this isn’t just about style — it’s about who executes better in key moments.
3. The Edges: Averillo vs Staggs This could be where the game turns. Averillo’s speed and support play shapes against Staggs’ power and tackle-breaking ability in one of the key match-ups on the field — and in a tight contest, one moment here could be enough.
The Haas Void vs the Reynolds Return
This is where the game tilts.
Payne Haas being ruled out removes Brisbane’s most reliable source of momentum. His value isn’t just metres. Ot’s repeat effort, ruck speed, and the ability to stabilise sets when things start to drift.
Without him, the structure holds, but the margin for error tightens. For Brisbane, it’s a test not just of depth, but of how much pressure this system can absorb at once.
Xavier Willison moves into the starting front row, with Brendan Piakura shifting into the back row. It’s a capable adjustment, but it changes the physical balance of Brisbane’s middle rotation.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have leaned into experience through their rotation, with Kenny Bromwich returning to the bench and Mark Nicholls promoted into the starting side — adding stability through the middle.
The counter for Brisbane is Adam Reynolds.
His return brings control back into the spine. Last-tackle options sharpen, field position becomes more deliberate, and defensive organisation improves across the line.
It also changes Ben Hunt’s role.
Instead of carrying the side as the primary organiser, Hunt becomes a roaming threat — either through dummy-half or off the bench. That flexibility gives Brisbane a second layer of control when the game starts to open up.
The Defensive Question: Life After Te’o
The bigger concern for Brisbane sits in their system.
Ben Te’o’s exit matters because of what he built. The Broncos’ defence over the past year hasn’t just been effective — it’s been resilient under pressure. Their ability to scramble, reset and hold firm in key moments was a defining feature of their premiership run.
That doesn’t disappear overnight. But it does get tested.
Last week showed they can still execute it. Doing it again in a derby, without the coach who embedded those habits, is a different challenge.
If the Dolphins can generate quick rucks and force repeat defensive sets, this becomes less about structure and more about trust — and whether that system still holds without its architect.
The Ex-Bronco Factor: Familiarity Cuts Both Ways
There’s no hiding the emotional layer in this one.
Seven Dolphins players have come through Brisbane’s system — Isaako, Cobbo, Farnworth, Nikorima, Flegler, Molo and Plath. That brings familiarity with systems, combinations and tendencies.
But more than that, it brings intent.
Flegler’s likely inclusion adds weight to that. If cleared, it’s his first crack at a derby after missing previous chances through injury. Molo’s return adds another experienced body to that rotation.
Then there’s Kodi Nikorima.
This is the most settled version of his game. He’s playing direct, picking moments, and controlling tempo without overplaying his hand. Against a side he knows well, that becomes even more valuable.
He doesn’t need to dominate the game — just steer it into the right spaces.
Early Exchanges Will Matter
This shapes as a contest through the middle first, edges second.
If Brisbane can hold ruck speed and limit second-phase play, Reynolds’ kicking game and Hunt’s flexibility should give them control.
If the Dolphins win that middle battle — through quick play-the-balls, line speed and pressure — the game shifts quickly. That’s when their outside backs become dangerous, and when Brisbane’s defensive cohesion gets tested.
The early exchanges matter. This is not a game that will wait to settle.
The edges could also prove decisive.
Jake Averillo’s speed and support play shapes as a direct contrast to Kotoni Staggs’ power and tackle-breaking ability — and in a tight contest, one moment in that channel could swing the result.
Grudge Match?
Is this a grudge match? Here’s what’s actually at stake.
For Brisbane, this is about stability.
Backing up last week’s win, absorbing the loss of Haas, and showing the defensive system still holds under pressure.
For the Dolphins, it’s about staying in the fight.
With the ladder tightening and the race for finals positions already congested, every result carries weight. A win here doesn’t just even the season ledger — it keeps them firmly in the mix and applies pressure above them.
They’ve already shown they can beat Brisbane. Now they need to show they can do it when it matters.
Friday night won’t just decide the result.
It will say a lot about where both teams are heading.
Published 25-March-2026
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